NCAAF win probabilities

Chronological Elo ratings for FBS college football using completed games from ESPN's public scoreboard. The current first pass is honest and lightweight: no betting lines, no roster/news layer, no future-data leakage.

Data refreshed by npm run ingest; ratings generated 6/8/2026, 7:05:53 PM UTC.

Holdout games
770
Brier score
0.194
Accuracy
68.8%

Recent scored predictions

12/28/2025 · neutral 38 – 35
Houston Cougars
37.4%
LSU Tigers
12/28/2025 · neutral 7 – 13
Missouri Tigers
60.6%
Virginia Cavaliers
12/27/2025 · neutral 47 – 49
San Diego State Aztecs
48.8%
North Texas Mean Green
12/27/2025 · neutral 25 – 21
BYU Cougars
65.4%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
12/27/2025 · neutral 10 – 22
Clemson Tigers
53.3%
Penn State Nittany Lions
12/27/2025 · neutral 23 – 17
East Carolina Pirates
45.1%
Pittsburgh Panthers
12/27/2025 · neutral 57 – 20
UTSA Roadrunners
80.4%
Florida International Panthers
12/26/2025 · neutral 20 – 17
Minnesota Golden Gophers
68.6%
New Mexico Lobos
12/26/2025 · neutral 34 – 7
Northwestern Wildcats
48.3%
Central Michigan Chippewas
12/25/2025 35 – 31
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
55.2%
California Golden Bears
12/24/2025 · neutral 17 – 10
Ohio Bobcats
61.9%
UNLV Rebels
12/23/2025 · neutral 16 – 27
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
35.8%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Top current Elo ratings

  1. #1Georgia Bulldogs 1998.8
  2. #2Oregon Ducks 1981.6
  3. #3Ohio State Buckeyes 1963.2
  4. #4Alabama Crimson Tide 1946.4
  5. #5Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1936.0
  6. #6Ole Miss Rebels 1916.5
  7. #7Texas Longhorns 1912.7
  8. #8Indiana Hoosiers 1878.6
  9. #9Michigan Wolverines 1873.9
  10. #10BYU Cougars 1867.5
  11. #11Oklahoma Sooners 1858.3
  12. #12Texas Tech Red Raiders 1858.2
  13. #13Penn State Nittany Lions 1847.1
  14. #14Miami Hurricanes 1845.7
  15. #15Tennessee Volunteers 1844.4