About the model
NCAAFPredict estimates FBS college-football win probability from a chronological team Elo model.
The first production dataset comes from ESPN's public college-football scoreboard endpoint (FBS group 80), normalized into
data/raw/ncaaf. It includes completed games plus any scheduled games exposed by the source.
What is live now
Ratings are updated game-by-game in date order. Home teams receive a tunable Elo bonus unless the game is marked neutral. Ratings are partially carried over between seasons to reflect roster continuity without treating old teams as identical forever. Backtest scripts sweep simple parameters (home edge, temperature, K-factor and carryover) and report log loss, Brier score and accuracy.
What is not included
This version does not use betting markets, injury reports, depth charts, recruiting, returning production or play-by-play efficiency. It is a transparent baseline rather than a claim of state-of-the-art college-football forecasting.
Performance
The performance page reports chronological pre-game metrics. Lower log loss and Brier are better; accuracy is shown for intuition but calibration matters more than picking every favorite.
These are model probabilities for entertainment and analysis, not betting advice.