Model performance
Scoring is based on pre-game chronological Elo probabilities. Each game is predicted before the rating update for that game. The headline holdout starts with the 2024 season.
Games
770
Log loss
0.569
Brier
0.194
Accuracy
68.8%
By season
| Season | Games | Log loss | Brier | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 884 | 0.617 | 0.213 | 67.8% |
| 2019 | 888 | 0.569 | 0.192 | 73.4% |
| 2020 | 568 | 0.587 | 0.201 | 68.7% |
| 2021 | 887 | 0.569 | 0.193 | 71.0% |
| 2022 | 896 | 0.598 | 0.205 | 68.6% |
| 2023 | 911 | 0.572 | 0.194 | 69.6% |
| 2024 | 385 | 0.573 | 0.196 | 68.1% |
| 2025 | 385 | 0.564 | 0.191 | 69.6% |